- AfD is the first party in Thuringia, second in Saxony. Was this a surprises?
No, it was a predictable and expected result, though perhaps not of these proportions. But AfD has been on the 25% consensus for years, now it has broken through the 30% mark.
- AfD in Thuringia pulled nearly 10 points ahead of the Cdu, marking the first victory of a far-right party in a German state since World War II. In Saxony it came in second by a whisker, just one point behind the Cdu. Are fears of a neo-Nazi comeback real?
AfD, after one of its exponents' remarks about the SS, was expelled by Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini from the European group Identity and Democracy. Certainly it is a party with still neo-Nazi overtones, particularly in some realities. But underlying this advance of right-wing extremism is something else. And it is this other that allows AfD to establish itself, despite the scandals and controversies.
- What is this other?
There are three foundational points on which AfD has built its success over the years. The first is the issue of immigration and the difficulties of integration especially of immigrants of the Muslim faith that are felt particularly by the poorer part of East Germany, those regions where AfD is strongest.
- After the Solingen bombing, Olaf Scholz announced a crackdown on immigration, more repatriations and fewer permissions.
But from the perspective of the impact immigration has on daily life today, these measures are tardive. And at the European level they will do nothing to change the attitude in Brussels.
- The other two points?
The economic crisis: after the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, with the ensuing sanctions on Russia, rising prices have hurt lower and middle-income groups in particular. AfD is beating hard on this issue by arguing the need for peace between Kiev and Moscow so that relations with Russia can be restored. And then lastly the Green Deal. The contestation of green policies is very strong on the right and is appealing to that electorate that suffers the costs. Added to this is impatience with political correctness, with an EU seen as intrusive.
- Chancellor Scholz spoke of a bitter and worryin election result. What effect will it have?
As has already happened in France, it is a vote that earthquakes the heart of old Europe, that highlights the shortness of breath that socialists and liberals, leftists and greens have. And this is a problem for Scholz, who loses legitimacy, so much so that early elections are not ruled out.
AfD, as has already happened to Rassemblement National in France, is becoming the escape valve for Germany, which cannot cope with the pushes of globalization. And which the leftists have abandoned.
- As happened in France for RN, however, Afd in Germany is also in danger of governing at all.
Today, no one wants to make agreements with AfD; they have erected a kind of cordon sanitaire to isolate it. And so it is still in danger of staying out of the control room. But how long can it last? In the meantime, they will govern at the local level, then we will have to see how it evolves. The risk is that AfD will grow so much in the Policies that they can no longer think of managing it by isolating it. And that doesn't speak in favor of Germany's political stability.
- In Italy, however, the right governs, and Italy is a stable country.
But you absolutely cannot make the comparison between AfD and the governing right-wing parties in Italy. AtD has not yet made the maturation path that parties like Fratelli d'Italia have made.
- On the left in Germany, Sahra Wagenknecht and her party is also growing, reaching double digits of consensus.
And the new left-wing party, personalistic, marked by a realist socialism, on very culturally conservative positions, opposed to immigration and the Ukraine-Russia war. A tenacious opponent of AfD, it nevertheless has many points in common with the right-wing party, from economics to immigration. In short, we see again in Germany what we experienced in Italy with the exposure of populist movements
