The elephant in the room: an ECB survey finds that many companies plan to leave the EU to secure their supply chains. The point is: If one wanted to reorder value chains for strategic security reasons, one would need an expansive (low rates) credit environment, not a restrictive (high rates) one, for the simple reason that this would require a massive amount of investment. Why did the ECB do the opposite?

If we destroy productive capacity, meaning we shut down factories where people could work, then prospectively we create an inflation risk, because when the state eventually intervenes with the usual QE (printing money too late) there will be no places of production.

According to a European Central Bank (ECB) survey, the worsening geopolitical climate, marked by the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions and the Russian conflict in Ukraine, is leading multinational companies to reconsider their global production strategies. The study, which involved 65 large global companies that contribute 5 percent of the eurozone's economic output, revealed that companies are shifting their focus to resilience as well as cost and efficiency.

These changes in production strategies could have significant economic implications. About half of the firms expect these shifts to cause inflation through higher prices. In addition, the EU could have a substantial impact on employment, as more companies plan to leave EU than enter.