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«A revolution will never be possible in Brussels, because we all know each other» «A revolution will never be possible in Brussels, because we all know each other» «A revolution will never be possible in Brussels, because we all know each other»

Economics

26 results

Tariffs to discourage imports of electric cars from China go into effect today, albeit provisionally. Scholz’s government opposes them in order not to damage the exports of Volkswagen and BMW. It is a game that will make it more difficult for Ursula von der Leyen to become President. The Chinese strategy is to invade the Old Continent through dumping and significantly lower prices. The Germans are producing in China, so Berlin’s cars are likely to suffer the same fate. What the White House does not accept is the maximum transfer of know-how between France, Germany and the Dragon

Germany, Europe’s super-engine, is breaking down – Berlin is flagellating itself over austerity measures that hurt everyone. The ongoing dispute over increased public spending in the federal executive is preventing agreement on the 2025 budget and is emblematic of a Germany that is slowing down to defend the “debt brake”. The same dynamic is repeated in the EU. Germany wants to preserve its hegemonic role by rejecting the common debt, even if only to finance defence spending, as proposed by the European Commission

Thucydides trap… EU style – If hostile bilateralism between China and the United States prevails, as it seems the case, the old Continent would be the most affected being unprepared, vulnerable and not credible without a common foreign policy. The forming new balance of power in Brussels still won’t solve the issue

The thousand lives of Mario Draghi – Supermario shakes up the Union by proposing ‘radical change’ to compete with China and the United States. During the presentation of his report on European competitiveness, the former president of the ECB shows he’s a major candidate for a leading role after the elections, with a broad consensus, from Macron to Orbán. The key point of his speech seems to be that there’s great need for more industrial integration. Easy to say, harder to achieve

With no more gas from Russia and no booming exports to China, and with war on Europe’s doorstep, Germany’s CDU/CSU and FDP insist on the cry of austerity, this time taking Germany down with it, not just a few European countries. Coincidentally, these parties insist on nominating austerity obsessives as Markus Ferber (EPP coordinator in ECON) and other hawks like him to the European Parliament. They call themselves moderates, but instead they push extremism. God bless Europe!

24 January 2024

The kings of state aid – Germany and France together account for almost 80% of Europe’s €672 billion approved programmes in 2022, despite representing just over 42% of the bloc’s GDP. A significant discrepancy that leaves 25 of the EU’s 27 countries behind. Italy comes third, receiving around 8% of the subsidies, even though its industrial production is higher than that of France (16% compared to 11%). So much for the free market!

15 January 2024

A chain reaction of bankruptcies – There is no sign of a decrease in German insolvency filings, which have been rising since June 2023: 12.3% more in December 2023 than in December 2022. A danger for the whole of Europe, which has a major trading partner in the German locomotive. Meanwhile, there is growing dissatisfaction with the new Stability Pact, which pleases few and displeases many. There are fears of a return to the infamous austerity policies

22 December 2023

Bubblereport #11 – The usual farce – The little theater of the Stability Pact ended with rules that no one will ever be able to comply with. New finance ministers, just like the old ones, still prioritise appearances over content. The more things change, the more they remain the same

19 December 2023

Bubblereport #10 – The decisive day is 20 December – The rules of the Stability Pact, suspended in the wake of the epidemic, will be reinstated in 2024. EU finance ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting to try to reach a new agreement. Italy’s Giorgetti has already expressed his dissatisfaction and could join forces with his French counterpart to block the draft agreement: the bone of contention remains the 3% budget deficit to GDP ratio, a criticism that could leave Italy isolated

04 December 2023

Bubblereport #8 – After destroying Italian banks by mistakenly considering private funds as state aid, RENEW’s Margrethe Vestager might not be able to go crocheting in the chair of the European Investment Bank presidency. Ultimately, Sánchez’s economy minister, Nadia Calviño, is most likely coming out on top

28 November 2023

Bubblereport #7 – The ecological transition is a 19th century revolution – After having gutted countries like Argentina, Chile and Indonesia in search of the resources needed for its batteries (lithium and nickel), Europe is now realising that it cannot do without China and its supply chain. Dependence on Beijing is frightening, and not even the good news from Sweden’s Northvolt can be reassuring

08 November 2023

The elephant in the room: an ECB survey finds that many companies plan to leave the EU to secure their supply chains. The point is: If one wanted to reorder value chains for strategic security reasons, one would need an expansive (low rates) credit environment, not a restrictive (high rates) one, for the simple reason that this would require a massive amount of investment. Why did the ECB do the opposite?

06 November 2023

The old guard has been summoned! – Surrounded by socio-economic crises, the EU fears losing what has held it together: the internal free market. Draghi and Letta have been called to duty, but their role is still unclear and it may not be enough to keep the continent “competitive” in a world that’s rapidly moving in another direction

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