Tariffs to discourage imports of electric cars from China go into effect today, albeit provisionally. Scholz's government opposes them in order not to harm the exports of Volkswagen and BMW. The game is intertwined with appointments to the Commission's top leadership. Beijing and Berlin want to launch a counteroffensive with the German-led Commission (Lady Ursula again). A game that, in addition to being intertwined, threatens to turn on itself and make it even more difficult to square around the name of Ursula von der Leyen as an encore candidate. As of today, tariffs on battery-powered vehicles produced in China are in effect. German manufacturers reacted vehemently to the news and, in line with Olaf Scholz's moves, called on the EU to back down. China, for its part, hopes to reach an agreement with the EU. At least that is the position of China's commerce minister. "We hope the European side will work with China to meet halfway, show sincerity, speed up the consultation process and reach a mutually acceptable solution based on rules and reality as soon as possible," Chinese commerce ministry spokesman He Yadong told Cnbc. He also reiterated China's opposition to the EU's anti-subsidy investigation and stressed that the two sides still have a four-month window. China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reportedly met virtually with Valdis Dombrovskis on June 22 to discuss the EU's investigation into electric vehicles, according to the spokesman. The two sides reportedly held several discussions at a technical level, but it is unclear whether the talks are ongoing or have ended. So much so that the shutdown was ultimately triggered anyway. For the country led by Xi Jinping, the tariff wall is likely to be a problem. China's electric car sector is close to saturation. Currently, battery-powered vehicles account for about one-third of the market. This rapid growth (we are talking about three times the EU market average) is due to the huge incentive premium (over $200 billion) and the infrastructure push. Now, however, even with incentives, electric vehicles can't break through the 33 percent barrier. Therefore, the Chinese strategy is to invade the old continent through dumping and significantly lower prices. In the future, it will not be so easy to get around the tariffs, and in any case, list prices will have to rise. On the other hand, the Germans are producing in China, so the Berlin cars will probably suffer the same fate. The most interesting fact, however, is the ongoing attempt by Berlin to reverse course and get the Commission back on track. An attempt that apparently has the support of Chinese policymakers, who seem to want to support the Ursula bis Commission as long as it remains German-led. In this case, we would be heading towards a scenario not too different from what we experienced at the beginning of 2023, when Emmanuel Macron was on the crest of the wave. At the time, he was trying to make his industrial move. The theme was to balance the power of the US stimulus and, at the same time, to put himself back at the top of Europe by becoming the main interlocutor of China. Exactly the project undertaken in the days of Donald Trump and the French break with NATO. Paris wanted to play dirty. To use Europe's money and try to add its own technology to that of its European partners. The scheme in general needs a third leg, the outlet market: a channel to and from China.
What the White House did not and does not accept is the maximum transfer of know-how between France, Germany and the Dragon. Beijing, for example, has guaranteed Airbus a development market in exchange for hosting entire logistics and technology platforms at home. The U.S. is not afraid of Airbus technology, but that it will end up in the hands of the Chinese through osmosis. And this fear is not unfounded. Two examples: the agreement signed by Macron with the CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) and the launch of Cfosat (Franco-Chinese oceanic satellite) in 2018. The Airbus factory in Tinjin assembled its four hundred and fiftieth A320 as part of a mainland market worth 229 aircraft ports alone. So the Chinese opened their airports in exchange for access to projects and the big world of EU suppliers. Now Macron has lost his home game and a few million votes. It is unlikely that he will think of reviving the project in the run-up to the US elections. But the pattern could repeat itself. Or rather, part of Germany and China would like to revive the Elysée dream. How? First, by getting von der Leyen on their side and asking her to replicate the strange triangle.