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«A revolution will never be possible in Brussels, because we all know each other» «A revolution will never be possible in Brussels, because we all know each other» «A revolution will never be possible in Brussels, because we all know each other»

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Tariffs to discourage imports of electric cars from China go into effect today, albeit provisionally. Scholz’s government opposes them in order not to damage the exports of Volkswagen and BMW. It is a game that will make it more difficult for Ursula von der Leyen to become President. The Chinese strategy is to invade the Old Continent through dumping and significantly lower prices. The Germans are producing in China, so Berlin’s cars are likely to suffer the same fate. What the White House does not accept is the maximum transfer of know-how between France, Germany and the Dragon

Meloni’s charm wins over Orban – In the end, the PiS will join the European conservatives, despite the Hungarian temptations of the new ‘Patriots for Europe’ group. Nicola Procaccini and Joachim Brudzinski will be the co-presidents, elected at the end of the group’s constituent meeting

BUBBLEFLASH – Identity and Democracy marching towards the end? – According to our sources, the leaders of ‘Patriots for Europe’, the new European group founded by Viktor Orban, will meet tonight to discuss the organisation of key internal positions. The official announcement will be made on Monday. Marine Le Pen is also expected to have a role within the new group, which would mean the end of ID’s existence

BUBBLEFLASH – Lady Ursula looks to the left – The plan remains the same: ignore the emergence of the conservative right and strengthen the majority by looking the other way. Von der Leyen met with the Greens today (1st of July), but the road to their votes is always uphill. It is no longer the time for the Green Deal, priorities are other, and defence is always in the headlines. That is why an agreement is difficult, but not impossible

As Bubble Report predicted last week, Orbán announced today in Vienna the formation of a pro-Russian right-wing alliance to form a group in the European Parliament. In addition to the Hungarian leader, the founders of the Patriots of Europe include Austria’s Herbert Kickl and the Czech Andrej Babiš

Germany, Europe’s super-engine, is breaking down – Berlin is flagellating itself over austerity measures that hurt everyone. The ongoing dispute over increased public spending in the federal executive is preventing agreement on the 2025 budget and is emblematic of a Germany that is slowing down to defend the “debt brake”. The same dynamic is repeated in the EU. Germany wants to preserve its hegemonic role by rejecting the common debt, even if only to finance defence spending, as proposed by the European Commission

Green policies are the past, back to normality! – Frans Timmermans’ right-hand man, Diederik Samsom, will be the new chairmansh of the supervisory board of Gasunie, the Dutch gas giant. Samsom had been one of the main negotiators at the time of the green deal. Today the scale of priorities is different and one is forced to get one’s hands dirty…

BUBBLEFLASH – Orban ponders pledging love to ID – According to our sources, the Hungarian prime minister, after describing the top jobs agreement as ‘shameful’, is in the process of joining Marine Le Pen’s group, Identity and Democracy. This after receiving a clear rejection from ECR. Thus, the project of a pro-Russian group bringing together some of the countries historically close to Moscow’s ideas would have already foundered

It’s easy to put a spanner in the European works – Giorgia Meloni, with certainly interesting timing, points out that the agreement reached in the last few hours does not give any guarantees for the future: “Agreeing on top jobs does not mean having a majority, and it certainly does not mean having a solid majority’. For Meloni, should the Parliament vote in favor of Von der Leyen, it would mean staying out of the game for the entire legislature. Hence the wishful thinking that the already reached agreement means less than it’s supposed to mean

BUBBLEFLASH – It’s their game now! – Ursula Von der Leyen, Antonio Costa and Kaja Kallas have been selected by the six EU negotiators as heads of European Commission, European Council and European foreign policy service. The three names will be presented for approval this Thursday. But Lady Ursula’s road is still uphill: the vote in Parliament remains a stumbling block that cannot be taken for granted

A large extended family – The growth of right-wing parties is leading to a revolution. At the end of the day, there could remain as many as four groups to the EPP right. Orban is reportedly considering the formation of a pro-Russian group with the Slovenes, Slovaks and Czechs. The AfD crypto-Nazis (expelled from ID) are also thinking of a hyper-sovereignist group. An increasingly right-wing parliament would benefit ECR, making it look more digestible for S&D and Renew

Lady Ursula is teetering – The majority is by no means a foregone conclusion. With the departure of seven MEPs from the Renew Europe group, the number has slipped below the psychological threshold of 400 seats: it is stuck at 399. And considering that MEPs changing idea usually weigh about 10-15%, Lady Ursula won’t rest assured until the end of this week

Thucydides trap… EU style – If hostile bilateralism between China and the United States prevails, as it seems the case, the old Continent would be the most affected being unprepared, vulnerable and not credible without a common foreign policy. The forming new balance of power in Brussels still won’t solve the issue

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