Without waiting for the European Council to discuss the fall of the Syrian regime, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday made commitments on behalf of the EU on Syria and supported Turkey's key role in the country's future. "Europe is ready to do its part to support Syria in this critical phase," von der Leyen said in a meeting with Erdogan, "Turkey has an essential role to play in stabilizing the region." The Turkish game is a long one. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. administration fears a Turkish invasion of northern Syria to launch a full-scale incursion against the U.S.-backed Kurds.
At the European Council, EU leaders will discuss the strategy to be adopted on Syria. The general principles have been set. The High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, has invited a diplomat to Damascus to begin technical talks with the new authorities. It is no longer taboo to talk to Hayat Tarir al Sham, the jihadist group sanctioned by the EU. Its leader, Ahmed al Sharaa, alias al Julani, will be judged by his actions, not his words. "Early signs are encouraging," say European diplomatic sources. But the list of conditions set by EU foreign ministers is long: territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria, inclusive government, fight against terrorism, respect for minority and women's rights.
Kallas also explained that one of the messages that will be sent to the new leadership in Damascus is that "neither Russia nor Iran has any place in Syria". The High Representative said he wanted to work with all partners in the region - Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The trip to Ankara to discuss Syria, which Ursula von der Leyen announced on her own last week, caused some embarrassment because the commission chief did not coordinate with either Kallas or European Council President Antonio Costa. The visit had been planned for some time, but was to focus solely on bilateral relations and immigration. Von der Leyen avoided missteps in public statements with Erdogan. The EU wants to take the first steps to work on reconstruction. The Syrian people deserve a peaceful transition" that "preserves the territorial integrity and sovereignty of their country," she said. Turkey's legitimate security concerns must be taken into account," von der Leyen said. At the same time, all Syrians, including all minorities, must be able to live in safety. The implicit reference is to the Kurds, who are being bombed by Turkey in northern Syria. If Erdogan opts for a large-scale incursion to expand his borders, von der Leyen's miscalculation risks hurting the EU. In a letter seen by the Wall Street Journal, Ilham Ahmed, a Syrian Kurdish civil administration official, told President-elect Donald Trump that a Turkish military operation was likely and urged him to pressure Erdogan not to send troops across the border. In any case, Erdogan laid out his conditions for cooperation with the EU: lifting "all restrictions" in bilateral relations, "resuming high-level dialogue," "upgrading the customs union," and achieving full visa liberalization for Turkish citizens traveling to Europe. "EU membership remains a strategic goal for Turkey," Erdogan added. Von der Leyen arrived in Ankara with a billion-euro check to deal with Syrian refugees, following a 2016 deal to halt departures. Since 2011, the EU has provided nearly 10 billion euros to Turkey. "I am very pleased to announce today that an additional billion euros for 2024 is on its way," von der Leyen said at the press conference with the Turkish president.
The money will be used to support "health care and education for refugees in Turkey" and "migration and border management, including the voluntary repatriation of Syrian refugees". Von der Leyen assured that the money could be used flexibly by Turkey. "As things develop on the ground, we can adapt this 1 billion euros to new needs that may arise in Syria," she said.
