Western Europe’s most important eastern flank surprised everyone with the first-round victory of Calin Georgescu, the candidate of the pro-Russian ultra-right. Romanian farmers and young people find Putin more attractive than Lady Ursula. In fact, if we are still arguing about yes or no to Eurobonds, or if we are still arguing about whether or not to put nativity scenes in institutions instead of creating a common European army and focusing on the traditions of Western culture, the battle with the Authoritarian East will be lost already at its start

For some it is a revolution. For others, a flash in the pan that should not be forgotten. But one thing is certain: there, on the eastern flank of Europe, something has changed. And the vote in Romania is a political earthquake whose contours are still unclear, but potentially decisive.

The first-round victory of Calin Georgescu, the candidate of the pro-Russian ultra-right, took everyone by surprise. His campaign had been hammering away on TikTok in recent weeks. According to the Central Election Commission in Bucharest, Georgescu received 22.9 percent of the vote, while Elena Lasconi received 19.18 percent, only slightly more than Ciolacu's 19.15 percent. The difference was around 2,500 votes. Fourth, surprisingly, with 13.9 percent, was George Simion, also on the far right and pro-Russian positions, leader of the sovereignist Aur party, which the polls had instead shown to be the clear winner and Ciolacu's likely challenger in the second round. But no one can really understand how a man who won 22.9 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election could be so underestimated by pollsters and analysts. For some, being under the radar paradoxically helped him.

He could move freely without media attention. And he could say anything that the other right-wing candidate, George Simion, avoided being ostracized before the vote. Georgescu, on the other hand, at 62 years old, continued to gather support everywhere, triumphing among what he called "the humiliated, those who feel they don't count and instead count more, with a vote that is a prayer for the nation. He wooed ranchers and farmers with his agricultural engineering background and promises of lower taxes and higher production. He tickled the nostalgia vote by praising prominent figures of early 20th century Romanian fascism, Ion Antonescu and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu. He pandered to young people, the real users of TikTok. He criticized the European Union. And he went all out on the most important issue for Europe and NATO's eastern flank: cutting off aid to Ukraine.

"The Romanians shouted their demand for peace. And they did it with extreme force," Georgescu commented after the results. And that will be the theme of the runoff with center-right and pro-European candidate Lasconi (who has already received the support of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who came in third).

This is an existential challenge for Romania, as the country has been increasingly confirmed as a key NATO player in recent years. The alliance has five thousand soldiers stationed in Romanian bases. From the runways of Mihail Kogalniceanu, Atlantic fighter jets patrol the skies against incursions by Russian jets. Earlier this year, Bucharest and Brussels announced that the same base in Constanta, on the Black Sea, would become NATO's largest military outpost, capable of housing up to 10,000 troops. And with Ukrainian ports unable to receive grain, the port of Constanza has become Kiev's grain corridor.

Georgescu has long had his eye on aid to Ukraine. And NATO is the populist leader's first problem. He considers it useless and incapable of protecting its members. He has criticized the anti-missile system deployed at Deveselu, calling it "a disgrace."

He looks up to Vladimir Putin's moves, even suggesting that Romania should follow the Kremlin's agenda. And it is no coincidence that many also see in his victory Russia's ability to influence the election through the scientific manipulation of social media.

Georgescu's videos were often shared by Russian media and accounts close to Moscow. It is a technique that has been used in other contexts and monitored by Western intelligence agencies for years. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was careful to point out that no one knows Georgescu's positions on Romanian-Russian relations. But it is clear that Putin will pay close attention to the election results. And even if the pro-Western candidate wins on December 8, the czar would have plenty of reasons to smile. At least as much as the voters who warned Bucharest and those who fully embraced it.