Bubblereport # 9 – Two little men with a little party (Frei Demokraten is at risk of going below 5%) are holding not only Germany but an entire Continent in check. RENEW’s Christian Lindner and Wolfgang Kubicki turn into ID’s best allies with their dogmas on fiscal rules screwing up the European integration process. With a world increasingly in disarray, they look at fiscal constraints instead of how to provide the EU with a real defense. Great job!

Ahead of the "most morally" embarrassing Ecofin for Germany, Finance Minister Christian Lindner clarifies the premise he hopes will shield him from criticism from his colleagues in EU countries. "There is no contradiction between a stability-oriented European financial policy and the disorientation created by the budget crisis in Berlin," is the pre-summit statement entrusted to spokeswoman Nadine Kalwey, who was also forced to specify, "Ecofin is about reforming the Stability Pact to continue to ensure solidity for Europe. But if anyone asks Lindner to discuss the situation in Germany, it will be made known." 

Of course, the Liberal chief minister refers to the "only" devastating effects of the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court ruling that caused 60 billion euros to be missing from the federal budget by postponing many strategic investments for Germany to the Greek calends. It will be much more challenging to explain to Ecofin colleagues the genuine political chaos within the Scholz government, euphemistically referred to as "disorientation." 

The truth on the eve of Ecofin is that the Semaphore Coalition, after two years in government, is split into three pieces. And without more money than before, it cannot be easily reassembled. What's more, Lindner comes to Brussels having to watch his back even within his party where Wolfgang Kubicki, influential former vice president of the Bundestag, has not digested his decision to suspend for one year the debt break, the FdP's workhorse during the last election campaign, which was even inserted as a totem in the German Constitution: "It is legally feasible but poses important trust issues," warns Kubicki, especially for voters of the liberal party pictured in the polls as dangerously poised on the edge of the electoral bar for Parliament. 

Trust is exhausted among the FdP, Spd, and Greens, much to the chagrin of the coalition agreement. Their respective ministers are now at loggerheads over everything, starting with the painful decision of who will have to pay for the maxi-cut in spending imposed by Lindner. To offset the deficit, the finance hawk has no intention of raising taxes on Germans or introducing the unpopular Autobahn toll. 

“Better new elections than new debt” was Lindner’s inflexible slogan. Today, it applies only to the European Partners. Indeed, in Europe, no one doubted. Despite the precariousness of the domestic financial situation, Germany would still stand in the way of any attempt to broadly reform the current Stability Pact. 

Revealing more than the outcome of Ecofin is that a few days ago, Lindner put State Budget Secretary Warner Gatzer, considered the architect of the credit structure that made the Semaphore alliance possible, into temporary retirement. He will leave at the end of the year, marking the end of an era. Gatzer has always been considered the critical official for any finance minister in Germany. His successor at the end of the month will be Wolf Reuter—the head of Minister Lindner’s policy department.