Elisabeth Borne resigned as prime minister yesterday. It is a political watershed moment. Attal will define the remaining time of Macron’s presidency and might also succeed Macron in the next presidential elections. It is an entirely political affair.
Borne’s exit was not a voluntary one. She did not become a threat to the president or stay in his shadows, as some prime ministers did before her. This as a sign that Macron is weak and has to give into pressure, especially after the immigration law vote caused a political crisis amongst his MPs. There was the recurring argument that Macron needs a more political prime minister than her, the technocrat. Macron resisted pressure for a reshuffle last summer after Borne pushed through the pension reform with Art. 49.3 of the Constitution. But this time, a reshuffle of the French government is more an ex ante move to reshape his presidency.
There are the upcoming European elections, and likely losses for Macron’s Renew Europe group, which has fallen behind the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, according to latest polls. This would have wider ramifications for the selection of EU top jobs. The 34-year old education minister already rolled out a significant education reform. Attal is the youngest and the first openly gay prime minister of the French Republic. As a former member of the Socialist party, he could bring back into the fold the left wing of Macron’s alliance in the National Assembly, after they voted against or abstained on the immigration law. The revolt of the left comes after Macron made concessions to the right and the far-right to get his immigration law over the finish line before Christmas. This would follow the classic scheme of Macron’s neither-nor positioning.
But there are risks with this nomination, especially in the long term. There is a power vacuum for Macron's Renaissance party that needs to be filled. Up until now Macron did not accept any challenger next to him. This is the reason why the popular Edouard Philippe had to go as his first prime minister. Neither did Macron build up anyone who could take over from him when he finishes his last term.