Bubblereport #6 – En Marche towards failure! – Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is worried about the outcome of the European elections: nine percentage points behind Bardella’s Rassemblement National, which can also count on Zemmour’s Reconquete. The issue of immigration is weighing on the president’s failures, and he is now seeking to regenerate his team. But it may not be enough to weather the storm

Immigration is set to be a prominent issue in the upcoming European elections, scheduled for June next year, posing a significant challenge to far-right parties across Europe. In France, the Rassemblement National (RN) is leading the polls, with a recent Opinionway poll for Les Echos showing a notable increase to 28%, compared to the 23.4% they secured in the 2019 elections. The RN's charismatic and politically savvy leader, Jordan Bardella, is at the head of the European list and is aiming to break through the 30% mark in what he has dubbed the mid-term elections, a goal that seems achievable. Bardella's campaign focuses on the more affluent demographic in France, where the RN currently has 22% of the vote. Marion Maréchal, Marine Le Pen's niece, is also in the race with Réconquete!, the party led by Eric Zemmour, on 7%. Together, these two parties would represent 35% of the vote, ahead of Les Républicains on 8% and Renaissance on 19%, according to the poll.

Faced with a 9 percentage point deficit to the RN, Emmanuel Macron's team is considering a strategic overhaul to improve its prospects in the European elections. The plan is to bring in a new generation of young and dynamic people who are eager for change. This change is not limited to the electoral list, but also extends to the executive. The current prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, who survived Macron's test last June amid parliamentary challenges, is being considered for possible replacement by a younger and more energetic figure who is familiar with the electorate. This strategy, dubbed the "young old" by Cecile Cornudet, places Bardella in Le Pen's camp and Gerald Darmanin and Gabriel Attal in Macron's. The aim is for the new prime minister to boost Renaissance's chances in the European elections. The names of Julien Denormandie and Sébastien Lecornu have been floated, with the former representing the left wing of the party and the latter currently serving as Minister of the Armed Forces, bringing valuable experience from the Middle East.

Traditionally, political wisdom has held that experience is crucial for navigating difficult parliamentary exchanges or negotiations with employers and trade unions. However, Macron's rise to power in 2017 demonstrated that winning elections depends more on knowledge, methods and compelling narratives than on political experience.