Giorgia Meloni plots in the dark – The spitzenkandidat system means only one thing: to proceed quickly with the appointment of von der Leyen. But one possible plan hovers in the corridors of the Palazzo Chigi: to wait until the French legislative elections in order to strengthen the position of the ECR and occupy as many positions as possible. It is a high-risk tactic, but more than a few clues seem to suggest that Meloni is considering to proceed along this way

It is a temptation at the moment. But it would have serious consequences for the whole of Europe. Giorgia Meloni is considering opposing a fast deal for the next president of the European Commission. And to expose herself, if other leaders do not do so first, by asking the European Council to wait for the legislative vote in France. The aim is to take advantage of Marine Le Pen's possible victory to put the conservatives in the centre, to upset the balance in Brussels - which would be shaken by Macron's possible new defeat - and to maximise the Italian result in the negotiations for the continent's top jobs.

It is a risky plan that is being carefully considered in Palazzo Chigi. But there are two signs pointing in this direction. The first goes back to yesterday, to the first meeting of the leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament. During the meeting, the People's Party called for the Spitzenkandidat system and even announced that it wanted to proceed quickly with the reappointment of von der Leyen. The Social Democrats followed suit, on the instructions of Olaf Scholz. However, there was one notable absence at the meeting: the conservative (Ecr) MEP Nicola Procaccini. A signal that was interpreted by those present as a melonian desire not to break ranks and not to rule out a freeze until the French vote. The second sign is even more important: in the last few hours, according to high-level sources, Meloni has had at least one contact with Le Pen. Structured talks to agree on a strategy and prepare for any scenario.

In short, the Prime Minister is at a crossroads. She wants to "weigh up" the election victory in the Council negotiations with France and Germany. And she has to decide whether to "settle" for a pact with Ursula, raising the price to snatch a vice-presidency with a heavy economic portfolio or the box of High Representative for Foreign Affairs in favour of Elisabetta Belloni - along with a vice-presidency in the European Parliament - or hope to benefit from a possible brutal cohabitation in Paris between Le Pen and Macron to try to break the bank in Brussels. But where to? The numbers in the European Parliament cannot ignore the Ursula majority, nor would they change in the event of a Le Pen victory in France. But the gamble would be to push for an alternative EPP name capable of arming Rome and moving the legislature to the right. The trail leads to the profile of Antonio Tajani. A conservative majority would then become a real option, despite the hostility of liberals and socialists.

Everything will be decided in three key stages. It will start tomorrow in Borgo Egnazia:Macron, Scholz and Meloni will meet with von der Leyen on the sidelines of the G7. Then, on Monday 17 June, the twenty-seven will meet again in Brussels for an informal summit.With one serious detail: von der Leyen has been excluded from the leaders' dinner, despite pressure to attend. Finally, the European Council is scheduled for 27 and 28 June. On paper, the People's Party intends to nominate Ursula there and then put her to a vote in the EU Parliament on 17 July. But this process is fraught with pitfalls. We have spoken of Meloni's temptation. But what about Macron? If he decides to go along with the EPP's push on Ursula, he would be up against some terrible timing. On 28 June, the "yes" to von der Leyen; on 30 June, the first round of the national elections; on 7 July, the vote; and on 18 July, the European Parliament's vote of confidence in the German (by secret ballot, so unpredictable). Meanwhile, the left would bombard the Elysée Palace for not waiting for the results of the elections. According to Palazzo Chigi, Macron is beginning to doubt this course. A signal would also come from the leaders of the political groups in Brussels if Macron's representative said he did not recognise the system of the frontrunner. A brake, still tentative, on Ursula's rapid encore.

Of course, a "freeze" would not be painless. In fact, in the absence of an agreement at the summit of June 27-28, there would only be a residual chance to reach an agreement by July and to avoid leaving the Union rudderless at least until September, in a dramatic international phase: an extraordinary summit around July 10 to conclude a very difficult deal in a few hours. This is an option that is circulating. It would give the Prime Minister the advantage of waiting for the French elections. But it would also have an obvious disadvantage: if Macron wins, or at least avoids a Lepenist victory, the Italian's veto power would be reduced. Herein lies the fork in the road and Meloni's possible gamble.