Politics is not arithmetic, but knowing how to count is essential. The European Parliament's reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen, when EU leaders nominate her as the new Commission president on Thursday and Friday, depends on 361 votes in her favor, which she must win. With the departure of seven MEPs from the Renew Europe group, the "Ursula majority", made up of the People's Party, the Socialists and the Liberals, has slipped below the psychological threshold of 400 seats: it is stuck at 399. The vote is secret, MEPs changing idea are always lurking and weigh about 10-15%. If von der Leyen was already trying to expand the list of her supporters, now it is even more necessary. Renew Europe lost the Czech delegation of Ano, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis: the group fell to 74 seats, 9 away from the Conservatives and Reformists (Ecr), where Fratelli d'Italia sits. But the situation is still in flux; the Liberals have ongoing discussions about possible new entries that could narrow the gap. According to several European sources, however, this will not change von der Leyen's strategy, which will continue to rely on the Greens' 51 votes and Meloni's 24. However, the outgoing president will also have to secure the votes of socialist delegations that do not have a prime minister in the European Council and therefore do not feel bound by the leaders' agreement, such as the PD, which has 21 MEPs. Let's go in order. Now that Renew appears more unstable, the Greens will raise the price to support von der Leyen: they have already asked to formally join the majority, but both EPP and Renew are divided on this, which makes the cake of seats to be shared shrink. The second demand concerns the content, because although the Greens have said they are willing to compromise on the Grean Deal, they will still demand guarantees that are difficult for the EPP to accept. At the moment, it seems that the path of majority membership is not viable. According to various EU sources, the support of Meloni's MEPs is safer, because the Italian commissioner will need the EPP, which would not agree to vote for the candidate of a party that did not support von der Leyen, especially if the president has gone along with PM Meloni's demands for a vice-presidency with a weighty portfolio in order to pass the parliamentary hearings (Rocco Buttiglione was rejected in 2004). In the last few hours, Meloni has held talks with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, who, along with Poland's Tusk, is the Popular Party's negotiator. The situation in the socialist house is more complex. The Germans, Spaniards, Maltese and Danes will be loyal to their leaders (Scholz and Sanchez will be the two negotiators), but what will the others do? A lot will depend on what kind of agreement the European Council reaches. The division of the top jobs, i.e. the four top posts in the European institutions, gives the EPP the presidency of the Commission and the Parliament, which the Socialists claim for half a term, together with the presidency of the European Council, which the Popular Party claims for the second half, since the treaties stipulate that the post lasts for two and a half years, renewable. The name on the table at the moment is the former Socialist Prime Minister of Portugal, Antonio Costa. There was an exchange of phone calls between negotiators on Thursday and Friday, as the EPP wants assurances that Costa will support the Popular programme, and in particular that he will support policies against illegal immigration. Several sources see Enrico Letta in the Council as a way in the socialist house to secure support for von der Leyen. Negotiations between the groups will officially begin after the S&D elects its president on Tuesday: the PD, which is the largest delegation, does not claim its theoretical rightful place. On Wednesday evening, it will be the turn of Ecr and Renew. Then the games will begin in earnest, although the ID's constitutive meeting will be held on July 3.
There is still movement on the right; a new group could be born with the Afd.
