It is no coincidence that the issue was discussed last week at the meeting of the EPP presidency (Manfred Weber and his deputies, as well as the heads of delegations) in Stockholm. While the Italian (led by Antonio Tajani, who just yesterday announced his intention to run for the vice-presidency again at the Valencia congress at the end of April), Spanish, Croatian and Greek members are pushing to the right, a large part of the German delegation, the Swedes and other Nordic countries are more inclined to look to the center, preserving the so-called “Ursula majority”. So it’s not surprising that the meeting in the Swedish capital resulted in a document (the Stockholm Declaration) that focuses heavily on security, combating violence against women and children, fighting terrorism, protecting IT infrastructures and guarding against foreign interference. All central issues, of course. But on which there is also broad agreement, unlike other dossiers such as immigration and the environment (whose fate is not independent of the political balance in Germany, where Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Opel and Volkswagen are based).

In short, the German elections will determine the course of the EPP for years to come. With an eye also on Washington, because tensions over tariffs and the relationship with Donald Trump risk becoming a critical element in the relationship between the EPP and the ECR (the party of which Giorgia Meloni was president until last December). At the moment, the ECR seems to be waiting on the sidelines to understand what the impact will be on the rules in the Parliament. Will the EPP continue to be at the disposal of the “Venezuelan majority” on some specific fronts (starting with migrants and green issues, which are not even mentioned in the Stockholm Declaration), or will it – thanks to the coalition with the SPD in Berlin – also look to the center on these issues? The answer will only be known in a few months when the new German government is formed. Only then will we understand in which direction the political balance in Brussels is shifting.

A strengthening of the “Ursula majority” could bring the ECR and the Patriots closer together (together they have 162 MEPs, 26 less than the EPP but 26 more than the S&D). Moreover, the conservatives and the sovereigntists speak to a largely overlapping electorate, minus the never-voiced tones of the former. With one major difference: their position on Ukraine. If this obstacle were removed – if, for example, Moscow and Kiev were to actually begin negotiations – there’s no reason why the two groups couldn’t coordinate their efforts on a permanent basis. Except, of course, for the far right of the ESN, which includes Germany’s AfD.

L'articolo The EPP is waiting for the vote in Germany and the subsequent formation of a government to see how to proceed. The Stockholm Declaration only talks about security and other agreeable issues, without any reference to green policies or immigration. Not to mention economic policy. Yesterday, during the vote in Strasbourg on the annual report on the ECB, an issue came to the fore that is common to almost all political parties (S&D, Renew, EPP, ECR, etc.), namely the differences between frugal and pro-European states on EU economic policy. In fact, even in the EPP, some MEPs abstained on amendments proposed by the Left, which rightly pointed out the dysfunctionality of a system that has a common monetary policy without a common fiscal and industrial policy, and also criticized the ECB for its too rigid interest rate policy. proviene da Bubble report.

The EU’s timeframe is always long, even when issues demand urgent answers, as is the case with boosting competitiveness and increasing investment in defense. The Swedish presidency, which will lead the EU in the first half of 2023, has already made competitiveness one of its priorities. Thus, for months, there has been talk of the huge investments the Union will need to finance the double green and digital transition, to which defense has been added. However, it was former ECB President Mario Draghi who, in his report presented in September, provided a comprehensive diagnosis of the situation and quantified the Union’s financial needs: 800 billion euros per year, between private and public funds. Draghi’s work has set the pace, even if not all of his solutions are to the liking of EU countries. For the time being, defense is the most “neutral” ground on which it seems easiest to achieve convergence.

A year ago, it was Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Renew), who now heads EU diplomacy, who first raised the possibility of common bonds to finance defense. She immediately won the support of French President Emmanuel Macron and other liberal leaders such as Belgium’s Alexander De Croo. But whenever the issue was raised with more frugal countries, starting with Germany and the Netherlands, they insisted that Next Generation EU was a one-off. In recent days, however, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen admitted in an interview that she was “looking with fresh eyes” at joint debt and state aid to support the investments needed to defend and boost the Union’s competitiveness. The front of frugal countries that have always opposed new joint debt is cracking, with the Nordics more inclined to revise their positions. Germany and the Netherlands remain the two most difficult stumbling blocks to overcome. It will be up to the German government that emerges from the February elections to make decisions on these issues. But it is clear that Berlin will then inevitably condition The Hague as well. Chancellor Scholz, even as Merkel’s finance minister, has always been skeptical about Eurobonds, but in recent years Berlin has shown flexibility and pragmatism. And that is exactly what Frederiksen is calling for: “All countries, including a country like Denmark, which is usually part of the austerity gang,” he said, “need to put aside knee-jerk reactions and see what Europe needs, and then we need to adapt the economy to that, not the other way around. And it is her way of acting across ideological fences that won Frederiksen the 2019 election, when as a Social Democrat she took a hard line on crime and immigration, issues usually reserved for the right that she rejected on the left: “An insecure society is always a bigger challenge for people without many opportunities. If you have money, you can always defend yourself,” she reminded the Financial Times in an interview last February.

Falls taboo in Germany for reform to debt brake

In Germany, the greatest taboo has fallen. Now even the president of the Bundesbank, the temple of fiscal austerity and monetary orthodoxy, is calling for a reform of the debt brake. In an interview with the Financial Times, Governor Joachim Nagel succumbed to a “complicated” and “weak” scenario for Germany. And given the urgent need to gain more fiscal space to modernize Germany’s infrastructure and invest in defense, the Buba chief said bluntly that “it would be a very smart approach” if the “debt brake” that harnesses public accounts, inscribed in the German constitution since 2009, were revised.

A revelation that comes in the middle of a discussion that has been going on for months. The inability to circumvent the debt brake after the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court’s ruling last December rejecting 60 billion in extra-budgetary funds is the real reason for the long government crisis that led to early elections in recent weeks. Olaf Scholz’s SPD and the Greens are in favor of the reform, while the Liberals are adamantly opposed.

L'articolo God willing, they may begin to awaken from their long hibernation. Badger Europe may begin to realize what is taken for granted elsewhere. In some frugal countries, such as Denmark, the need for a common debt is beginning to sink in. And in Germany, the taboo on debt brake reform is beginning to fall. Who knows if Merz will slowly come around. There is no hope for Ferber, for whom austerity is a religion proviene da Bubble report.

The cuts in the federal budget are expected to add up to ten billion euros a year, with a further ten billion euros a year to be saved through a stricter migration policy. “The bottom line is that we need to get to 50 billion euros or more in order to ensure the country’s ability to defend itself and to relieve the burden on those who pull the cart in this country,” said the CDU politician, who was responsible for the party’s basic program. Linnemann also made a promise to maintain the debt brake: “The federal debt brake is cemented.”

Surprisingly, Linnemann also announced a new push for the failed free trade agreement TTIP. “I could well imagine that under Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump, together with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, there will be a new attempt at a transatlantic trade agreement after TTIP has failed,” said Linnemann. A new free trade agreement would boost both continents.

He clearly rejected the emergency budget planned by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). “That is not necessary at the moment,” said Linnemann. Trust is gone. “Every day that this chancellor remains in office is a bad day for Germany,” said Linnemann. Germany’s business model was “in the greatest danger it has ever been in”.

Extract Eurointelligence:

“[…] If you want to know Europe’s true reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory, look no further than Berlin. Germany’s political leadership chose the very moment of Trump’s victory to throw their country into a political vacuum that will last for at least eight months. When Trump becomes president in January, the EU will have lame duck governments in Berlin and Paris.

It is also becoming clear that the EU will not stand up to Trump. They will instead compete for his attention. Viktor Orbán is already Trump’s biggest ally in Europe. Trump will get on very well with Giorgia Meloni. We read an interview with the general secretary of the CDU, who predicts that Merz, a long-standing Atlanticist, together with von der Leyen, would like to negotiate a free trade agreement with Trump. We think this is bordering on the delusional. They are clearly not taking Trump’s threat to impose tariffs seriously, nor his demand for Europeans to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP. Trump has not been the biggest fan of Germany, and especially not of German imports. We doubt that Richard Grenell, a former US ambassador to Germany and one of Trump’s foreign policy advisers, is prioritising a strategic alliance with Germany. Like the courtiers of a decadent monarchy, Europe’s leaders will compete with one another for the great man’s attention – only to realise that he is not interested in them. Trump does not want more German exports, he wants German companies to produce in the US.

The EU, and Germany especially, not only depend on the US for security, but also for absorbing Europe’s large and persistent current account surpluses. With Trump in power, the US will probably do less of both. Since Germany has never known any economic strategy other than industrial export surpluses, we see the German structural slump persisting.  

The way the EU is built is simply not conducive to geopolitical grandstanding.

L'articolo SOS Europe, Help! Some Germans are still struggling to open their eyes. And in the hope that Trump won’t do what he says, they are still fantasizing about unrealizable things. Like CDU secretary general Carsten Linnemann, who fantasizes about free trade agreements between Europe and the U.S. instead of thinking about how to strengthen domestic demand. If they continue their obsession with austerity this time, they will not only lead Greece into the abyss, but Germany itself and the whole of Europe. Let us hope that Weber and the true Catholics in the EPP will be able to open the eyes of their compatriots proviene da Bubble report.

L'articolo We are in the final comic moments: the CDU – after voting in the European Parliament for a ban on internal combustion engines from 2035, and after having forced even other EPP delegations that were against it at the time to do the same – changes its mind and shifts into reverse gear. Did they have to wait for the collapse of the car industry to realize this? What strategists! In the face of Draghi’s statements, Ehler and Schwab make statements cloaked in mock enthusiasm, emphasizing only the part that interests them and the frugals: innovation and the domestic market. No mention of the importance of a common debt.  proviene da Bubble report.

No, it was a predictable and expected result, though perhaps not of these proportions. But AfD has been on the 25% consensus for years, now it has broken through the 30% mark.

– AfD in Thuringia pulled nearly 10 points ahead of the Cdu, marking the first victory of a far-right party in a German state since World War II. In Saxony it came in second by a whisker, just one point behind the Cdu. Are fears of a neo-Nazi comeback real?

AfD, after one of its exponents’ remarks about the SS, was expelled by Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini from the European group Identity and Democracy. Certainly it is a party with still neo-Nazi overtones, particularly in some realities. But underlying this advance of right-wing extremism is something else. And it is this other that allows AfD to establish itself, despite the scandals and controversies.

– What is this other?

There are three foundational points on which AfD has built its success over the years. The first is the issue of immigration and the difficulties of integration especially of immigrants of the Muslim faith that are felt particularly by the poorer part of East Germany, those regions where AfD is strongest.

– After the Solingen bombing, Olaf Scholz announced a crackdown on immigration, more repatriations and fewer permissions.

But from the perspective of the impact immigration has on daily life today, these measures are tardive. And at the European level they will do nothing to change the attitude in Brussels.

– The other two points?

The economic crisis: after the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, with the ensuing sanctions on Russia, rising prices have hurt lower and middle-income groups in particular. AfD is beating hard on this issue by arguing the need for peace between Kiev and Moscow so that relations with Russia can be restored. And then lastly the Green Deal. The contestation of green policies is very strong on the right and is appealing to that electorate that suffers the costs. Added to this is impatience with political correctness, with an EU seen as intrusive.

– Chancellor Scholz spoke of a bitter and worryin election result. What effect will it have?

As has already happened in France, it is a vote that earthquakes the heart of old Europe, that highlights the shortness of breath that socialists and liberals, leftists and greens have. And this is a problem for Scholz, who loses legitimacy, so much so that early elections are not ruled out.

AfD, as has already happened to Rassemblement National in France, is becoming the escape valve for Germany, which cannot cope with the pushes of globalization. And which the leftists have abandoned.

– As happened in France for RN, however, Afd in Germany is also in danger of governing at all.

Today, no one wants to make agreements with AfD; they have erected a kind of cordon sanitaire to isolate it. And so it is still in danger of staying out of the control room. But how long can it last? In the meantime, they will govern at the local level, then we will have to see how it evolves. The risk is that AfD will grow so much in the Policies that they can no longer think of managing it by isolating it. And that doesn’t speak in favor of Germany’s political stability.

– In Italy, however, the right governs, and Italy is a stable country.

But you absolutely cannot make the comparison between AfD and the governing right-wing parties in Italy. AtD has not yet made the maturation path that parties like Fratelli d’Italia have made.

– On the left in Germany, Sahra Wagenknecht and her party is also growing, reaching double digits of consensus.

And the new left-wing party, personalistic, marked by a realist socialism, on very culturally conservative positions, opposed to immigration and the Ukraine-Russia war. A tenacious opponent of AfD, it nevertheless has many points in common with the right-wing party, from economics to immigration. In short, we see again in Germany what we experienced in Italy with the exposure of populist movements

L'articolo The ultra-right’s boom in Germany shakes the heart of Europe. In last sunday’s vote AfD was the first party in Thuringia, and second in Saxony, marking the first victory of a far-right party in a German state since World War II. Today no one wants to deal with them, a party that still has neo-Nazi overtones, so it will stay out of the decision room. But for how long? Lorenzo Castellani, historian and political scientist at Luiss-Guido Carli University in Rome, analyzes its success and what it will bring in the near future proviene da Bubble report.

 The good news is that the chancellor has decent instincts on these issues. He also has a useful ally in Ursula von der Leyen, who has become one of the most powerful presidents of the European Commission for decades. As a former German cabinet minister, Mrs von der Leyen has antennae finely tuned to the sensitivities of her homeland, even if she hails from a party now in opposition there. Having secured a second fiveyear term last week, she will have political capital to spend.

The bad news is that time is tight. All three of Germany’s ruling parties took a pasting in last month’s European elections, and are bracing for another in state elections in September. As attention turns to Germany’s next national election, due in autumn 2025, the parties will be tempted to take their feet off the accelerator in Europe and play up their differences at home. With geopo litical risks growing and Europe’s economy stagnating, that would be short-sighted and dangerou s. Mr Scholz, and Germany, need to step up.

L'articolo Big troubles in Germany – From being an undisputed power in the European economic system, Berlin is finding itself fragile and vulnerable to the billows of global instability. In the mid-1990s, as the European Union went from one crisis to another, there was one constant: Germany, and in particular Angela Merkel, its chancellor, the star around which the rest of Europe orbited. But now the Deutschland Model devoured itself, appearing increasingly bewildered and unable to define itself amid the East-West rift but especially in the competition between the United States and the China-Russia bloc proviene da Bubble report.

On the other hand, Germany itself categorically rejects the great leap forward that would be made with the common debt, even if only to finance defense spending, as proposed by the European Commission. Germany may not be sick, but it no longer seems to be the locomotive of Europe. On the contrary, deprived of safe and innovative leadership, it is in danger of derailing. 

L'articolo Germany, Europe’s super-engine, is breaking down – Berlin is flagellating itself over austerity measures that hurt everyone. The ongoing dispute over increased public spending in the federal executive is preventing agreement on the 2025 budget and is emblematic of a Germany that is slowing down to defend the “debt brake”. The same dynamic is repeated in the EU. Germany wants to preserve its hegemonic role by rejecting the common debt, even if only to finance defence spending, as proposed by the European Commission proviene da Bubble report.

The Commission’s number one, the candidate of the European People’s Party to succeed herself at the helm of the EU executive, mentioned the air defense shield, speaking of the fact that “we need to improve our defense industry, we need to make sure that fragmentation in the European Union ends, and we need European common interest projects,” including “for example, an air defense shield for all of Europe, as proposed by Mītsotakīs and Tusk.” The reference to European common interest projects fits within the same von der Leyen cabinet proposal that arrived in early March on the first EU common defense strategy. More specifically in the new legal framework—the European Armament Program Structure (SEAP)—that will be made available by the European Defense Industrial Program (EDIP) to increase member states’ cooperation on equipment with potential financial support from the Union.

“Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has shaken our continent’s security and defense architecture to its core,” and “recent tragic events in the Middle East have further reminded us of how volatile our neighbourhood is,” warn Mītsotakīs and Tusk in the letter sent just yesterday to President von der Leyen: “Geopolitical rivalries are rife, and the fundamental principles of international law are being challenged by a worryingly growing number of revisionist actors around the world.” This is why “the EU and its member states must do more and better on security and defense because the current fragmented landscape is simply not up to today’s needs and requirements.” In addition to a “swift and concrete follow-up” in the Council to the Commission’s proposals, the EU executive’s “forthcoming” report on “financing options for our ambitious projects” in the field of security and defense is expected.

But there is more; it is precisely the heart of the letter addressed to von der Leyen. “Europe will be safe as long as the skies above it are safe, which is why the EU needs a new ‘flagship’programme,” intending that European air defense shield which is also looked upon with interest by the outgoing Commission president: “A comprehensive air defense system to protect our EU common airspace from all incoming threats, including aircraft, missiles, drones and more.” In the view of the two premiers belonging to the European political family of the EPP, this would be a “highly capable” tool and a “credible deterrent against all possible aggressors,” should diplomatic deterrence fail. The European air defense shield should be “a program that addresses this major vulnerability in our security” and that “incentivises European companies in the field to develop cutting-edge technologies and become world leaders in their fields,” acting on the one hand as a “facilitating catalyst for further upgrading” industry and demonstrating on the other hand that “the EU is a global power whose economic strength is enhanced by military power.”

L'articolo Anything but relying on the French and the Italians – One of the most pressing problems for the European Union is air defense, which is currently provided by Germany, which in turn chooses to depend on two actors: Israel and the United States, which supply the Arrows 3 and Patriot respectively. But what happens if for some reason the said supply should be interrupted? It seems that from the Russian energy problems, the Germans have learnt nothing… proviene da Bubble report.

He wants to move the party away from the liberal centrist positions championed by former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merz and Merkel go back a long way, their relationship marked by disappointment, anger, and dislike. Because of Merkel, Merz turned his back on politics in 2009 and went into business.

Islamists do not belong in Germany

At the CDU political convention in Berlin this week, a new party platform was adopted intended to sharpen the conservative profile.

“With this platform, we are ready to take on the responsibility of governing Germany today or by autumn at the latest,” 68-year-old Merz said in his speech.

On 75 pages, the CDU sets out “who we are, where we stand, and what we want.” The document details the party’s positions on all major political issues. There are clear statements on immigration and integration. “Muslims who share our values are part of Germany’s religious diversity and our society,” it reads while adding: “An Islam that does not share our values and rejects our liberal society does not belong in Germany.”

Merz calls for more vigilance in dealing with Islamists and the far-right. “Today, we have to agree with those who say that the problem of right-wing extremism in Germany has been underestimated for years, and we should be very careful not to repeat the same mistake when it comes to the instigators of political Islam, who openly threaten us and who are not prepared to accept the rules of our country and peaceful coexistence in Germany.”

With regard to immigration, the CDU calls for an “unconditional” commitment to the “German Leitkultur” (guiding culture), a term dating back to the 1990s that many argue is a call for assimilation. The CDU wants it to be understood today as a commitment to the constitution and to a shared set of values. These include a “shared sense of homeland and belonging,” an “appreciation of our traditions and customs,” and knowledge of German culture and language.

In an interview with DW’s Senior Political Correspondent Michaela Küfner, Merz said “Those who are really integrated and willing to meet all the requirements we are having here in this country, legally, culturally, that these people are really welcome [but] those who are, for example, asking for Sharia state or for the caliphate state do not have a place in Germany.”

Getting tough on immigration

When it comes to asylum, the party advocates a significant tightening of the rules. “Everyone who applies for asylum in Europe should be transferred to a safe non-EU country where they can be processed,” it reads. Agreements with such a non-EU country should be reached so that those who are granted asylum can then be distributed across the EU. A proposal by church representatives to grant recognized asylum seekers the right to stay in Germany failed to gain a majority at the CDU convention in Berlin.

In its new platform, the CDU also calls for the gradual reinstatement of compulsory military service, which has been suspended since 2011. However, those who do not want to serve in the armed forces should also be able to complete their compulsory year of service in a social institution.

On the subject of social welfare, the CDU is calling for more incentives: Anyone who refuses work or training “must be in a noticeably worse financial situation than someone who is actively looking for work.”

Merz is not (yet) a candidate for chancellor

The CDU spent two years working on its new party platform. “Losing the federal election was painful,” Merz said at the party convention, referring to the party’s defeat in 2021. “But going into the opposition also bought us the time we needed to regroup as a party.”

However, Friedrich Merz is not yet where he wants to be. He has not yet been nominated as the CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor in the 2025 general election. The plan is to wait until after pivotal state elections in the eastern states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg this autumn. Only then will the CDU and CSU decide on their top candidate.

Merz is keen to run, but so, too, is CSU chairman and Bavarian Premier Markus Söder — and then there is Hendrik Wüst, the Premier of the country’s most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Both Söder and Wüst are more popular than Merz, according to opinion polls.

Merz has never held any government office. But the CDU chairman is traditionally the first in line to run for chancellor, as Söder acknowledged in his speech at this week’s convention.

No cooperation with the far-right AfD 

Nationwide, the CDU is the strongest party and has been polling at just over 30%. However, in order to return to power, the conservatives will need to find one or more coalition partners. Friedrich Merz has ruled out any cooperation with parties on the extreme left and the extreme right of the political spectrum, which leaves few options in eastern German states.

There, the CDU is trailing far behind the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Thuringia and Brandenburg, while they are neck and neck in Saxony. Merz once loudly promised that under his leadership the approval ratings of the AfD would be cut in half. The opposite has happened. Today, Merz limits himself to saying that it is the job of the of the CDU to fight against the AfD. He vehemently rejects any cooperation.

L'articolo Sixty-eight years and still going strong – After his almost unanimous confirmation at the head of the CDU, Friedrich Merz wants to take over the country. The perennial runner-up to Angela Merkel now has no obstacles in his path to the presidency. The low approval ratings of Olaf Scholz and the Social Democrats open the way for a conservative comeback in Germany, but not in the form of the AfD, which must be contained. The stars seem to be aligned and the possible new Chancellor is already beginning to pose as such proviene da Bubble report.

Le Pen stressed that the AfD would be better off focusing on Germany’s internal problems rather than intervening in French affairs. She recalled that the Mahorais have repeatedly expressed their desire to remain French, through referendums in 1974, 1976 and 2009, the latter resulting in the transformation of Mayotte into a French department.

Tensions between the two parties in the European Parliament, grouped under the label “Identity and Democracy”, are exacerbated by recent disagreements, notably over a plan for mass expulsion of foreigners proposed by the AfD in Germany, to which Le Pen strongly opposed.

Furthermore, Le Pen criticized the French government for its diplomatic inaction towards the Comoros, accusing the latter of seeking to recover Mayotte through immigration. She called for retaliatory measures such as freezing the assets of Comorian leaders and removing visas.

In response to a recent security operation in Mayotte, Le Pen deplored the lack of concrete results from the French executive in the fight against insecurity and irregular immigration on the island, highlighting the urgent need for action effective in responding to the concerns of the Mahorais.

Two nationalist parties with different national ambitions and frictions may be impossible to reconcile under one group in the European parliament. If Rassemblement National and the AfD were to continue together in the ID, this would only be possible if the AfD would acknowledge the leading role of the French. This is unlikely to fly in the AfD, where they often bemoan Le Pen’s arrogance. It is hard for nationalist parties to work together.

L'articolo RN and AfD preparing for a split? – As we have been predicting for months, relations between the German and French far-right are becoming increasingly tense, as the latest row over the island of Mayotte has shown. Marine Le Pen is now playing the role of national unifier, while on the other side, scandals and irreconcilable political tendencies show once again how nationalist parties are struggling to work together. Meanwhile, Giorgia Meloni and the ECR are waiting in the wings… proviene da Bubble report.