The last socialist hope – France has not seen a progressive candidate in double figures in the polls for a long time. Raphaël Glucksmann is becoming more relevant by the week, so much so that he is worrying both the Macron centrists (whose support from the left has allowed Valérie Hayer to reach second place in the polls) and the old fox Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is now entering his twilight years. Le Pen is watching from the heights of her 30% and is thinking already of a possible two-person race with him

The joint EU election list formed by the French Socialist Party and leftist “Place Publique” led by Raphaël Glucksmann scored 13% in polls published on Wednesday and could be a cause for concern within Macron’s Renaissance camp that their core voter base is shifting to the left.

In a new poll published in French daily Challenges on Wednesday, the EU list headed by Glucksmann was polling at 13%, up from 9% in December.

While the far-right Rassemblement National’s EU list, led by Jordan Bardella, and the Renaissance list, led by Valérie Hayer, are still ahead of Glucksmann’s EU list in the polls at 30% and 18%, respectively, the latter has been gaining ground in the polls. Support for Macron’s party is now down from the 22.4% it received in the last EU elections in 2019.

However, this could become a serious headache for Macron, as Glucksmann voters were, at least for the most part, former Macron supporters. Voting patterns also show that pro-EU liberals, especially the younger generation, are shifting further to the left, partly to sanction the government’s shift to more right-wing policies.

“Twenty per cent of the voters who voted for Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the 2022 presidential election are now expected to vote for a left-wing list — mainly the one led by Raphaël Glucksmann,” wrote Gilles Fincheslstein, director general of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, a think tank, in a note published last week.

He added, “Renaissance has gone from being an original all-purpose central party to a classic bourgeois and elderly centre-right party.”

Glucksmann wants a more federalist Europe

Glucksmann’s EU candidacy centres around promoting a more federalist Europe, renewed rounds of EU joint debt, shared EU defence capabilities and increased support for Ukraine.

Growing support for Glucksmann’s list has caught the eye of Renaissance as Hayer has already attempted to ramp up calls for hesitant voters to stay true to Macron.

“Raphaël Glucksmann and I vote the same way on 90% [of issues] in the European Parliament. He should be with us, and he knows it,” she told Le Figaro in late February – a claim that was actively rejected by the social democrat, blaming Renaissance for their lack of support on EU social files.

Meanwhile, Macron has recently made significant social policy announcements to win back voters from the centre-left.

On 5 March, France became the first country in the world to enshrine the right to abortion in its Constitution.

Late last week, a video was leaked of Macron agreeing to include the notion of consent in France’s legal definition of rape — after actively fighting against the very idea at the European level in early February.

“What an instrumentalisation of the women’s cause just a few weeks before the European elections,” French MEP Nathalie Colin-Oesterlé (EPP) told Euractiv.

“Macron has realised that he made a mistake and will be attacked during the EU election campaign. It’s a manipulation, and his left-wing allies will certainly remind him of it,” she added.

“Renaissance cannot be deemed a pro-EU list,” Aurore Lalucq, an MEP and co-president of Glucksmann’s Place publique party, told Le Point on Tuesday.

Hayer has since reversed course, presenting Glucksmann’s views as no different from those of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — a strategy that has yet to bear fruit in the polls.