Are we answering the macro question: stability or instability?
China and America do not want confrontation. They will continue the battle for influence over the global South. So, the prevailing macro probability concerns an increase in globalized conflicts. But China, while pushing some confrontations, has no interest in them going over the threshold because that would put a weakened domestic economy in trouble. America has limits in presiding over the planet but has no interest in giving this function up.
Even in the event of Trump's election?
Yes. His Americanism is more vocal than Biden's, but the latter has continued the former's line, a sign that it is a systematic trend urged by trends in the electorate. So, the EU will not lose its alliance with Washington, but it will incur more security costs. Will general and national elections destabilize the EEU? No. In summary, the answer for the biennium is many hotbeds of instability, but manageable by keeping the system close.
