According to Thierry Breton, France’s voice at the EU level is now weaker, and the decisions of the EU executive are increasingly influenced by Germany and the EPP group. 

“This is not the Commission I knew. Today, I fear that the Community executive is too much at the service of Germany and the European People’s Party,” he said. 

Breton resigned as European commissioner on 16 September. Following this announcement, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Stéphane Séjourné to take over from Breton in the team of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for her second term. 

“The Heads of State and Government have given Germany the presidency of the Commission for ten years. Through the predominance of the EPP, the European Parliament has never been far removed from German politics. We need to ensure that the Commission plays its balancing role and that there is no drift”, he added.  

Breton also highlighted the need for France to regain a strong position in European discussions. According to him, French interests are no longer “sufficiently taken into account”. 

“France’s voice carries less weight in Europe, and that’s a regrettable fact,” he pointed out. “As a country, we have lost ground in areas that should be at the heart of our priorities: digital sovereignty, the energy transition and defence.” 

“France must regain its place as a leader, particularly in negotiations on energy transition and digital policy. Without that, we will be marginalised,” he stressed. 

Finally, Breton, who has long worked for a more sovereign Europe in terms of digital technology and industry, is critical of the direction taken by the new Commission, particularly in these areas.  

“I have always defended a sovereign and independent Europe, but I fear that this vision is no longer at the heart of the new team’s priorities,” he warned.  

L'articolo Are you mad? – Thierry Breton bears a grudge against the world, and it is hard not to pity him. The man who wanted to fight against the American big tech companies (also the protagonist of a personal feud against Elon Musk) now has a word for everyone: ‘I have always defended a sovereign and independent Europe, but I fear that this vision is no longer at the heart of the new team’s priorities,’ he declared. The burn of being left out by Lady Ursula at the last second is painful, but even more so of being betrayed by his own countrymen proviene da Bubble report.

So, we thought, on the eve of the presentation of the new Commission—which is expected today, but in Brussels, you never know—could this be an act of democratic transparency before the public? Alas, it wasn’t. Ursula’s staff made it clear that no response would be forthcoming, as the President holds dearly to the “confidential” method with which she is dealing, capital by capital, party by party, with the names and portfolios of her Commission. It was, in short, a mere personal idiosyncrasy, evident for some time. And a two-way political game between Brussels and Paris. Ursula no longer wanted Breton, Macron wanted more significant portfolios for the French commissioner, which the President offered him in exchange for Breton’s head. And so, just a few hours later, the Élysée had named its new choice: the Foreign Minister, Stéphane Séjourné, a Macron loyalist if there ever was one. What seemed like an earthquake turned out to be a mere adjustment in politique d’abord, possibly even clearing the way for today’s appointments. Now that Paris has what it wanted, the liberals can no longer complain about the portfolios of others. The last remaining obstacle is the Slovenian mess—the internal dispute over the ratification of their nominee. But as important as Ljubljana may be, it isn’t enough to stall Europe.

So, paradoxically, the Breton case brings closer the appointment of Raffaele Fitto as Executive Vice-President with the portfolio for Cohesion Funds and the PNRR (the Economy portfolio was never in question, as has been written, and indeed won’t be).

The Italian in Brussels, who was significantly received at the Quirinale yesterday, will thus manage an investment program amounting to around one trillion euros. And while we wait for the 800 billion euros per year that Draghi has indicated as the minimum condition for keeping up with U.S. and Chinese productivity, the amount Fitto will manage is the only large sum of money currently available for spending. Since many countries are behind schedule on their PNRR (far more than Rome), Fitto could even be called upon to play a delicate role as a negotiator with the capitals on revising or rewriting the plans, and who knows, maybe even extending loans to countries. This would increase the weight of the Italian portfolio.

But no matter how much satisfaction the Meloni government may express if things go this way, we certainly won’t be toasting to a turning point in Europe. It’s hard to deny that the Breton case also reveals a deep crisis in European institutions, heightening doubts about their ability to lead the historical process before us. No one missed the fact that an open conflict between a Frenchman and a German woman unfolded in Brussels yesterday, something quite unusual in those chambers. A perhaps minor, but further sign of the weakening of the Franco-German collaboration, without which the Union cannot move forward.

The only leader who had sketched out some sort of vision for Europe in recent years, Emmanuel Macron, now seems weakened both at home and abroad, to the point where he has to switch commissioners mid-course. Scholz, for his part, has never exercised leadership in Europe, and perhaps not even in Germany. Yesterday’s events seem like further confirmation of the great opportunities that the current situation offers Italy to take a leading role in a steering group that is currently lacking high-caliber players. It’s not certain that Giorgia Meloni will succeed, but she should at least try. Fitto as Vice-President would be an undeniable success for Italy. But we must also think about the success of Europe.

L'articolo It seems like our favorite French president’s inner circle is getting quite the shuffle. Breton is out, and Séjourné, the most Macroniste of them all, is in. Because nothing says transparency and political progress like a good old-fashioned game of musical chairs at the European Commission. It’s not like Europe has bigger issues to tackle, right? But hey, at least Paris got what it wanted. proviene da Bubble report.

“We will, today, put down a legal proposition to cancel the pension reforms,” said Mathilde Panot, who heads France Unbowed in the lower house of parliament, on France Inter radio.

The reform which pushes legal retirement age from 62 to 64, resulted in violent street protests last year, due to widespread opposition from workers.

Parliamentary deadlock

LFI’s bill, which is unlikely to be voted on before September, would need the support of lawmakers beyond the New Popular Front (NFP) left-wing coalition to pass.

The NFP – which bring together Socialists, Communists, Greens and the France Unbowed – has more than 190 seats in the National Assembly. 

The right-wing National Rally party, which holds 143 seats, had also campaigned on lowering the retirement age while Macron’s centrist bloc (164 seats) and other centre-right politicians said they would oppose such a move.

France is in a state of parliamentary deadlock since Macron’s decision to call the election, with the current government likely to carry out its functions throughout the summer in a caretaker capacity.

Despite days of negotiations, the NPF alliance has still not managed to name a consensus candidate for prime minister.

Gabriel Attal – who stepped down from the role last Tuesday – will oversee daily affairs with restricted powers until a new government is named.

While Macron has not set a deadline for this process, he said on Monday he was hoping for a “political truce” during the Olympic Games.

Macron is set to elaborate on his political vision on Tuesday evening during a televised interview.

L'articolo All against the center – It seems that everything is backfiring on Macron: in France, the far right and the far left (i.e., Le Pen and Melenchon) are reportedly ready to cooperate for the sole purpose of abolishing the hated pension reform law. A handshake that no one expects: another consequence of the dastardly moves of the Petit Napoleon, now increasingly backed into a corner proviene da Bubble report.

The legislative elections will take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7.

The announcement came after the first projected results from France put the far-right National Rally party well ahead in the European Union’s parliamentary elections, handing a chastening loss to Macron’s pro-European centrists, according to French opinion poll institutes.

Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, nationalist party was estimated to get around 31%-32% of the votes, a historic result more than double the share of Macron’s Renaissance party, which was projected to reach around 15%.

Macron himself wasn’t a candidate in the EU elections and his term as president still runs for three more years.

He said the decision was “serious” but showed his “confidence in our democracy, in letting the sovereign people have their say.”

“In the next few days, I’ll be saying what I think is the right direction for the nation. I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” he said.

In latest legislative elections in 2022, Macron’s centrist party won the most seats but lost its majority at the National Assembly, forcing lawmakers into political maneuvering to pass bills.

With Sunday’s decision, he is taking a big risk with a move that could backfire and increase the chances of Le Pen to eventually take power.

A scenario in which an opposition party would eventually win a parliament majority could lead to a fraught power-sharing situation called “cohabitation,” with Macron to name a prime minister with different views.

Le Pen, who head the National Rally group at the National Assembly, “welcomed” Macron’s move.

’We’re ready for it,” said Le Pen, who was the runner-up to Macron in the last two presidential elections. “We’re ready to exercise power if the French people place their trust in us in these future legislative elections. We’re ready to turn the country around, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to put an end to mass immigration, ready to make the purchasing power of the French a priority.”

The EU elections results were a hard blow for Macron, who has been advocating for Europe-wide efforts to defend Ukraine and the need for the EU to boost its own defenses and industry.

The National Rally’s lead candidate for the EU elections, Jordan Bardella, campaigned for limiting free movement of migrants by carrying out national border controls and dialing back EU climate rules. The party no longer wants to leave the EU and the euro, but aims to weaken it from within.

“Tonight, our compatriots have expressed a desire for change,” Bardella said. “Emmanuel Macron is tonight a weakened president.“

An official at Macron’s office said the decision to dissolve the National Assembly was justified by the “historic score of the far-right” that could not be ignored and the current “parliamentarian disorder.”

“You’re never wrong when you give the people a say,” said the official, who spoke anonymously in line with the practice of Macron’s office.

EU elections’ projections also show a resurgence of the Socialist Party, with about 14% of the votes. The party campaigned on more ambitious climate policies and protections for European businesses and workers, with about 14% of the votes.

Reacting to Macron’s announcement, far-left politician Francois Ruffin called on all leaders from the left, including the Greens to unite under a single “Popular Front” banner. “To avoid the worse, to win,” he wrote on X.

France is electing 81 members of the European Parliament, which has 720 seats in total.

L'articolo Bubbleflash – Cohabitation or death – The Petit Napoleon ripped through the European elections being lapped by Madame Le Pen (31.50% vs. 14.50%). Given the terrible result, ‘Monsieur Le President’ decided to dissolve the National Assembly, calling new elections within three weeks. Socialist leader Glucksmann (14%) criticised the choice: ‘I don’t understand why the President of the Republic obeys to Bardella’. A friction, this one between socialists and liberals, that could suggest a conservative majority in the European Parliament proviene da Bubble report.

Le Pen stressed that the AfD would be better off focusing on Germany’s internal problems rather than intervening in French affairs. She recalled that the Mahorais have repeatedly expressed their desire to remain French, through referendums in 1974, 1976 and 2009, the latter resulting in the transformation of Mayotte into a French department.

Tensions between the two parties in the European Parliament, grouped under the label “Identity and Democracy”, are exacerbated by recent disagreements, notably over a plan for mass expulsion of foreigners proposed by the AfD in Germany, to which Le Pen strongly opposed.

Furthermore, Le Pen criticized the French government for its diplomatic inaction towards the Comoros, accusing the latter of seeking to recover Mayotte through immigration. She called for retaliatory measures such as freezing the assets of Comorian leaders and removing visas.

In response to a recent security operation in Mayotte, Le Pen deplored the lack of concrete results from the French executive in the fight against insecurity and irregular immigration on the island, highlighting the urgent need for action effective in responding to the concerns of the Mahorais.

Two nationalist parties with different national ambitions and frictions may be impossible to reconcile under one group in the European parliament. If Rassemblement National and the AfD were to continue together in the ID, this would only be possible if the AfD would acknowledge the leading role of the French. This is unlikely to fly in the AfD, where they often bemoan Le Pen’s arrogance. It is hard for nationalist parties to work together.

L'articolo RN and AfD preparing for a split? – As we have been predicting for months, relations between the German and French far-right are becoming increasingly tense, as the latest row over the island of Mayotte has shown. Marine Le Pen is now playing the role of national unifier, while on the other side, scandals and irreconcilable political tendencies show once again how nationalist parties are struggling to work together. Meanwhile, Giorgia Meloni and the ECR are waiting in the wings… proviene da Bubble report.

In a new poll published in French daily Challenges on Wednesday, the EU list headed by Glucksmann was polling at 13%, up from 9% in December.

While the far-right Rassemblement National’s EU list, led by Jordan Bardella, and the Renaissance list, led by Valérie Hayer, are still ahead of Glucksmann’s EU list in the polls at 30% and 18%, respectively, the latter has been gaining ground in the polls. Support for Macron’s party is now down from the 22.4% it received in the last EU elections in 2019.

However, this could become a serious headache for Macron, as Glucksmann voters were, at least for the most part, former Macron supporters. Voting patterns also show that pro-EU liberals, especially the younger generation, are shifting further to the left, partly to sanction the government’s shift to more right-wing policies.

“Twenty per cent of the voters who voted for Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the 2022 presidential election are now expected to vote for a left-wing list — mainly the one led by Raphaël Glucksmann,” wrote Gilles Fincheslstein, director general of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, a think tank, in a note published last week.

He added, “Renaissance has gone from being an original all-purpose central party to a classic bourgeois and elderly centre-right party.”

Glucksmann wants a more federalist Europe

Glucksmann’s EU candidacy centres around promoting a more federalist Europe, renewed rounds of EU joint debt, shared EU defence capabilities and increased support for Ukraine.

Growing support for Glucksmann’s list has caught the eye of Renaissance as Hayer has already attempted to ramp up calls for hesitant voters to stay true to Macron.

“Raphaël Glucksmann and I vote the same way on 90% [of issues] in the European Parliament. He should be with us, and he knows it,” she told Le Figaro in late February – a claim that was actively rejected by the social democrat, blaming Renaissance for their lack of support on EU social files.

Meanwhile, Macron has recently made significant social policy announcements to win back voters from the centre-left.

On 5 March, France became the first country in the world to enshrine the right to abortion in its Constitution.

Late last week, a video was leaked of Macron agreeing to include the notion of consent in France’s legal definition of rape — after actively fighting against the very idea at the European level in early February.

“What an instrumentalisation of the women’s cause just a few weeks before the European elections,” French MEP Nathalie Colin-Oesterlé (EPP) told Euractiv.

“Macron has realised that he made a mistake and will be attacked during the EU election campaign. It’s a manipulation, and his left-wing allies will certainly remind him of it,” she added.

“Renaissance cannot be deemed a pro-EU list,” Aurore Lalucq, an MEP and co-president of Glucksmann’s Place publique party, told Le Point on Tuesday.

Hayer has since reversed course, presenting Glucksmann’s views as no different from those of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — a strategy that has yet to bear fruit in the polls.

L'articolo The last socialist hope – France has not seen a progressive candidate in double figures in the polls for a long time. Raphaël Glucksmann is becoming more relevant by the week, so much so that he is worrying both the Macron centrists (whose support from the left has allowed Valérie Hayer to reach second place in the polls) and the old fox Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is now entering his twilight years. Le Pen is watching from the heights of her 30% and is thinking already of a possible two-person race with him proviene da Bubble report.

“Salvini says that when a people vote they are always right, do you agree with the League leader?” was the journalist’s question.

“This is the rule of democracy, he defines democracy in this way. Is Russia now a democratic regime? Evidently not,’ Bardella replied, stating that there were no conditions for free elections in Russia.

“Putin is in this very self-centred incarnation of power, in what he has been calling since 2000 the vertical of power,” Marine Le Pen’s right-hand man remarked further, saying he was then in line with the positions taken by the French foreign ministry led by Stéphane Sejourné, among the loyalists of the president, Emmanuel Macron.

“I think the position held by French diplomacy is right. Don’t necessarily congratulate Putin’s election but take note of it because he is the representative of the Russian Federation and if there should be negotiations tomorrow they will obviously be with Putin,” Bardella concluded.

L'articolo The pupil and the master – France’s most relevant party (Rassemblement National) corrects Italy’s former most relevant political figure (Matteo Salvini): ‘Russia is not a democracy’. A reference to the words of the leader of the League, who after the elections that saw Putin triumph with 87% of the vote had called for respect for the democratic vote. A slap in the face that denotes Salvini’s loss of political weight and Le Pen’s desire for power (as well as possible internal upheavals within a possible conservative parliamentary majority in Europe) proviene da Bubble report.

With this move – Reconquête! MEP Nicolas Bay as well as lead candidate Marion Maréchal formally joined the ECR club in Parliament – the party wants to boost its credentials in the French political arena, where it was so far considered an outsider. According to the latest polls, the party could get 5% of the French votes in June’s EU election, which would translate into an additional six seats for ECR.  

“[We want] more weight given to the right-wing and conservatives so that tomorrow we influence both the presidency of the Commission and the political direction that will be pursued,” Maréchal told a press conference in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday (7 February).

L'articolo Bubblereport #15 – As Bubble Report has written several times in recent weeks, France’s niece is to join the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. The announcement was made during a press conference at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 7 February. After taking over from Éric Zemmour, Marion Maréchal is now ready to work with Giorgia Meloni (and Orban?) in the new Parliament after June 2024 proviene da Bubble report.

The Alternative für Deutschland (“Alternative for Germany”, AfD) party caused controversy a fortnight ago following press revelations of a meeting attended by several of its leaders in November in Potsdam, near Berlin, at which a plan for the mass expulsion of foreigners or people of foreign origin, including German citizens, was discussed.

Giant demonstrations against the party, accused of undermining democracy, have been held across the country for several days. “I totally disagree with the proposal that would have been discussed or would have been decided within the framework of this meeting,” hammered Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen on Thursday, saying for her part that she defends “all French people, whatever their conditions for acquiring nationality”.

“She added: “We have never defended any kind of ‘remigration’, in the sense of withdrawing French nationality from people who have acquired it, even under conditions that we contest. Lepéniste MEPs currently sit in the same group as AfD MEPs in the Strasbourg Parliament. They have also held several joint meetings in recent weeks in the run-up to the European elections on June 9. “I consider that we are in flagrant opposition to the AfD”, insisted the MP from Pas-de-Calais.

L'articolo Le Pen earthquake shakes Identity and Democracy – Little De Gaulle spoke of “important differences” between her Rassemblement National and Alternative für Deutschland. A few weeks ago we talked about Aunt Marine’s dissatisfaction with the success of her niece Marion, the rising star of Reconquête (and ECR). It seems that the RN’s rapprochement with the conservatives is also, and mainly, due to this proviene da Bubble report.

Borne’s exit was not a voluntary one. She did not become a threat to the president or stay in his shadows, as some prime ministers did before her. This as a sign that Macron is weak and has to give into pressure, especially after the immigration law vote caused a political crisis amongst his MPs. There was the recurring argument that Macron needs a more political prime minister than her, the technocrat. Macron resisted pressure for a reshuffle last summer after Borne pushed through the pension reform with Art. 49.3 of the Constitution. But this time, a reshuffle of the French government is more an ex ante move to reshape his presidency.

There are the upcoming European elections, and likely losses for Macron’s Renew Europe group, which has fallen behind the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, according to latest polls. This would have wider ramifications for the selection of EU top jobs. The 34-year old education minister already rolled out a significant education reform. Attal is the youngest and the first openly gay prime minister of the French Republic. As a former member of the Socialist party, he could bring back into the fold the left wing of Macron’s alliance in the National Assembly, after they voted against or abstained on the immigration law. The revolt of the left comes after Macron made concessions to the right and the far-right to get his immigration law over the finish line before Christmas. This would follow the classic scheme of Macron’s neither-nor positioning.

But there are risks with this nomination, especially in the long term. There is a power vacuum for Macron’s Renaissance party that needs to be filled. Up until now Macron did not accept any challenger next to him. This is the reason why the popular Edouard Philippe had to go as his first prime minister. Neither did Macron build up anyone who could take over from him when he finishes his last term.

L'articolo Macron is weak, especially after the immigration law vote caused a political crisis amongst his MPs. Renew Europe group has fallen behind Identity and Democracy (ID). Gabriel Attal, the 34-year-old partner of Renew Europe group’s President Stéphane Séjourné, has a very tough task ahead proviene da Bubble report.