Bubblereport #18 – The EPP congress elected Lady Ursula as its candidate for the encore presidency of the European Commission with only 400 votes in favor out of the 737 delegates entitled to vote. Of the 499 voters, 89 voted against her and 10 ballots were spoiled. The poor girl, who already has to run against herself, even received a slap in the face from Breton (former EPP and now Macron’s man in the Commission), who said: “Despite her qualities, Ursula von der Leyen is being outvoted by her own party. The real question now is: Is it possible to (re)entrust the running of Europe to the EPP for another 5 years, or 25 years in a row? The EPP itself does not seem to believe in its candidate”

The German delegation stands to applause and drags the other delegates along as well. Ursula Von der Leyen delivered her speech at the Bucharest convention center to gain nomination as "leading candidate" from the Congress of the European People's Party. The only ones sitting seemed to be the French Republicans, who never supported her. But it is a cold audience. And the vote confirms it: out of 499 voters, 400 in favor, 89 against (more than the members of the French delegation, who number 23) and 10 invalid. 737 of the 801 delegates were eligible to vote for the election of the leading candidate. 591 registered to vote but in the end only 499 voted. A gap of 238 delegates. That created some embarrassment in the party. The final result is also not a plebiscite. Former Slovenian Prime Minister Jansa was never a fan of the president. The rest are landslides. This is Von der Leyen's first time, because five years ago she was nominated to lead the Commission by EU leaders while the leading candidate was Manfred Weber. And it is Weber who in his speech went on the attack on his opponents: "the political concept of Emmanuel Macron and the liberals failed in the end. It is unable to stabilize the center. The socialists, Olaf Scholz, have even proclaimed a social democratic decade for Europe. But it lasted less than a few months. Today peasants, artisans and workers are in the streets of Berlin, Paris and Madrid." Von der Leyen, on the other hand, delivered a speech more like a Commission president than a leader of the Populars, although the call to the "friends of the EPP" was continuous. She lashed out at "populists, nationalists and demagogues," against the AfD and Rassemblement National: "The names may be different, but the goal is the same: they want to trample on our values and destroy our Europe." She did not name the other political families, because he will need to. Even in the press conference von der Leyen struggled to put on her candidate hat. And responding to a question about outsourcing the handling of asylum applications and the reception of migrants, which is referred to in the EPP's election manifesto, Von der Leyen stressed that: "everything in the manifesto is in full compliance with international laws. The concept of third countries is already in EU law. We are building on what the treaties say." 

The smiles, the embraces, "dear Giorgia", "dear Ursula", the joint missions among the boats of the desperate in Lampedusa, in the mud of Romagna, in Carthage by Kais Saied and next Sunday in Egypt the signing of an agreement with al Sisi. Between Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen the relationship is now well established, with different but common interests, one to count in Europe, the other to remain at the head of the Commission. But the operation now risks being premature, at least in perspective, as the president's fate seems precarious.

If until a few days ago, von der Leyen's candidacy for an encore at the Commission seemed to need a "prop" on her right, already identified in the votes of a part of the conservatives and in particular in the delegation of Fratelli d'Italia, the scenario has changed in the last 48 hours.

Because the reappointment of the President of the Commission is now seriously questioned within what should be her coalition, and this would make an external support of Meloni's party useless.

The problem has an Italian aspect. The League is willingly participating in von der Leyen's sabotage, with the aim of making the Meloni-led conservatives (Ecr) fail in their approach to the EPP. The strategy is then to attack the current president, hoping not to be excluded from an alternative solution, perhaps resurrecting the idea of a single group of sovereignists, dumping the AfD Germans.

A project that Meloni does not want to hear.

The Prime Minister has said that she is interested in an encore from von der Leyen, but from Via della Scrofa she adds: "We will not die for Ursula". In fact, according to Meloni, the close relationship with the Commission chairwoman has served two purposes: facilitating negotiations on the NPRP and gaining European support for the so-called "external dimension" of immigration.

However, Meloni will have to deal with a changed context. It all started the moment von der Leyen was officially invested by the EPP, which crowned her "Spitzenkandidatin".

Between Thursday and yesterday, there were two signals that von der Leyen's entourage considers alarming, despite her superficial statements. At the Bucharest congress - where she was the only candidate - as many as 89 delegates voted against her, another 10 slipped a null vote into the ballot box, and nearly 100 of those who regularly register for the congress chose not to vote. According to a source present at the congress, the hidden director of the franchi tiratori was Manfred Weber, the EPP leader who was sacrificed five years ago to make way for von der Leyen. Weighing on the outcome in Bucharest was Weber's decision to avoid election by acclamation, preferring a secret ballot that concealed pitfalls.

But if a few defections within the EPP could have been expected, albeit not on this scale, the biggest concerns are the two broadsides coming from Paris and Berlin, which could jeopardize even support in the Council and not just the subsequent vote in Parliament.

Thierry Breton, Commissioner for the Internal Market in von der Leyen's executive, wasted no time in sticking the knife into Bucharest's sore spot, pointing out in a social media post that the German "was outvoted by her own party". And so he asked: "Is it possible to entrust the management of Europe to the EPP again for another five years, that is, 25 years in a row? ".

Breton's words are particularly significant because the former minister is very close to Macron and is considered "the president's man" inside the Berlaymont Palace. Therefore, his blunt appearance was read in Brussels circles as a "pinch" from Macron to von der Leyen - his main sponsor five years ago - to say that this time his support is far from a foregone conclusion.

But the candidate also received another broadside, this time from her own government. Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a liberal, waited for the EPP nomination to fire back at his compatriot and in particular his line on banning heat engines in cars.

"As President of the Commission," he also wrote in a post on "X," "Ursula von der Leyen is for bureaucracy, paternalism and technology bans. Europe needs less von der Leyen and more freedom. Add to this the doubts and criticism coming from the socialist camp, to which Chancellor Scholz belongs, and the "unwavering" support of Paris and Berlin for the second term is clearly in question today.

As if that were not enough, Viktor Orban jumped on the critics' bandwagon yesterday.

"The last five years have been a colossal failure in the history of the EU, which is why all institutional leaders should be replaced."

The Hungarian prime minister's position on von der Leyen, despite his support five years ago, is not surprising. But again, it is a signal to Meloni that she risks backing the wrong horse.