Lady Ursula unchained – The new Commission, despite numerous appeals to give it a collegial character, will see a wild Lady Ursula, the real leader of the executive. During the last legislature the “German” traction ensured unity and coordination in action. This time, the impression is that the various commissioners are watertight comports whose only task is to follow the programme already drawn up by Mario Draghi…

The general finding is that there is widespread fragmentation of authority and responsibility. The role of the Executive Vice President is in many cases ambiguous in the sense that it is unclear how this oversight can be exercised, particularly where there are thematic stretches.

This lack of clarity is a change from the previous configuration, which was organized along German lines. It marks a difficulty (including a political one) that has been resolved by avoiding the centralization of power in certain individuals and by making a direct role for Lady Ursula herself in all decision-making processes structural and necessary. So much for the repeated calls for collegiality or equality among Commissioners. Beyond analysis and speculation, it will be the evidence of the facts that will show how this structure will convey the emerging power struggles (and that underlie this complex and "creative" composition).

Competitiveness and climate (the Ribera/Séjourné node): The functional/operational relationship between Ribera and Séjourné should balance the demands of climate action and those of competitiveness. Politically, there is a powerful center-left on transition issues, with Ribera and the Danish energy commissioners (but contained by a center-right climate commissioner). In fact, however, Ribera's mission on the climate/transition part seems extremely vague, with the suspicion that the VDL has made a rather unscrupulous operation, dressing up the Competition Commissioner's tunic in green (but who needs that?). Moreover, it will be difficult to reconcile this role with the all-political one of the transition.

The fact remains, however, that with this operation in Ribera there is an implicit recognition that the crux of the puzzle lies in how to finance the green transition (how much the states can push it, how much industries can cooperate or compete to decarbonize). An issue on which Spain is also leading the way with Calvino at the EIB.

There is a lot of ambiguity on the Clean Industrial Deal (and related new European Competitiveness Fund, without details): the two Executive Vice Presidents seem to have equal responsibility, but then we read that it is up to the French to develop the proposal together with the Climate Commissioner.

On paper, the portfolio of the French Executive Vice-President Séjourné is extremely "capillary" and horizontal on various issues that are the responsibility of others. His oversight of a new package for the chemical industry is important.

It is possible that in this configuration there will be a (due) rebalancing of power between DG CLIMA and DG GROW, which should now be reinforced in light of Executive Vice-President Séjourné's extended mandate on industrial strategy, to which four heavyweight Commissioners report.

Interpenetration of energy and climate agendas: these portfolios are extremely overlapping (almost doubled), with no clear articulation. Indeed, they share many competencies between Dutch Commissioner Hoekstra and Danish Commissioner Jorgensen, albeit with different geometries from time to time on the ownership of individual issues. This is true for the implementation of Fit-for55 and the assessment of PNIECs, for the 90 percent emission reduction target by 2040, and for the framework for updating the legislation that will follow with the concomitant amendment of the Climate Change Act. They will then share responsibility, but at the expense of the Energy Commissioner, for climate diplomacy, energy taxation and the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies, and the development of CCUS. For Hoekstra, there is a clear mandate to implement the carbon management strategy and a clear mandate to continue on the path of demand aggregation (to be extended to hydrogen, which otherwise receives no particular attention, marking a discontinuity in approach). The mandate of the Energy Commissioner has a clear focus on electrification (with an electrification plan expected).

Then there remains strong support for renewables and storage and, as highlighted in the Draghi report, the issue of energy infrastructure development and resilience. There is also a clear mandate to accelerate the development of nuclear energy and in particular the deployment of SMRs.

Another major change in this Commission is the merging of the climate and tax portfolios, which will be combined in the portfolio of the outgoing Dutch Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra.

VDL does not change its line on fuel/transport: The "mission letters" entrusted to Commissioners Hoekstra (climate) and Tzitzikostas (transport) are in continuity with the previous mandate, while presenting interesting novelties. Hoekstra - and thus DG CLIMA - is given the task to work on a "targeted amendment" of the CO2 standards LDV reg. that is supposed to be "in a technology-neutral perspective", but explicitly/actually opens only to e-fuels (as in the July political guidelines). The Greek is in charge of the automotive business plan proposed by Draghi. The fact that this activity is apparently unrelated to the activities of the two Executive Vice Presidents Ribera and Séjourné, and that the Transport Commissioner reports to Vice-president Fitto, makes it difficult, at least in the immediate term, to assess the real implications of this approach, starting with the spaces that renewable/low carbon fuels might occupy. We also note that Greece and the EPP represent the Transport Commissioner and the Chair of the Transport Committee in the Parliament, and a very strong focus on maritime issues and openness to shipowners' demands can be expected.

In terms of political balance, the political composition of the 6 Executive Vice-Presidents (1 EPP, 1 ECR, 2x S&D, 2x Liberals) does not generally reflect the political balance expressed in the European elections. The other 18 Commissioners report to the EVPs and/or directly to the VDL (including Dombrovskis and Sefcovic, VDL "loyalists").

The EPP is proportionally less covered on the most relevant issues, while expressing the Dutch climate commissioner and the Greek transport commissioner. Quite creative and of effectiveness all to be verified is the choice to put the Transport Commissioner reporting to Fitto, since operationally there would be no overlap on dossiers, technical services and related competencies, although some political oversight could perhaps be boasted by the ECR. The Sea/Fisheries Commissioner and the Agriculture Commissioner also report to Fitto.

The VDL has insisted on a horizontal Commission, and the hierarchy of the organizational chart has not been made public at this time, as it has been in the past.