The wave that won’t stop growing – Another headache for future European balances. In Austria, the far-right FPÖ won 29.1% of the vote, an increase of thirteen points since the last election. Something already seen in Germany, where the AfD overtook both the socialists and the conservatives in the recent local elections. An ultra-conservative government in Vienna seems unlikely at the moment, but never say never…

The far-right in Europe celebrated another victory yesterday, after Herbert Kickl and his Freedom party won the elections in Austria. It is the first victory for the FPÖ in the national elections, surpassing the polls' predictions with 28.8% and a larger margin ahead of the conservatives than predicted. There are still some postal votes to be counted that could change the results 0.4pp in one or the other direction. But as it is, the following parties enter parliament:  FPÖ with 28.8%, ÖVP with 26.3%, the Social Democrats with 21.1%, the liberal Neos with 9.2% and the Greens with 8.3%.

What are the coalition options? None of the parties has the necessary 92 MPs for an absolute majority in the Nationalrat, the assembly in Austria. Based on the results above, the FPÖ has 56 seats, the ÖVP 52, SPÖ 41, Neos 18 and Greens 16.

The arithmetic suggest that a coalition on the right between FPÖ and ÖVP would produce a solid majority of 108. A classic grand coalition between the conservatives and the Social Democrats would have a narrow majority of 93. Together with the Neos they could push it to 111, or 109 with the Greens.

Politically, it is more tricky and will take some time to work out which options are feasible. The ÖVP is the de facto kingmaker after these elections, even if they lost most of the votes since the last elections. No coalition would hold a majority without them. The ÖVP said it would not participate in a government under Kickl and are unlikely to cooperate with the Greens after the experience in the previous coalition government. This leaves two coalition options with the ÖVP: a coalition with the FPÖ, with a prime minister other than Kickl, and a classic grand coalition with the SPÖ and perhaps the Neos.

There is also an option of a minority government with a confidence-and-supply agreement in the assembly. But this is not up to the FPÖ. It is the prerogative of president Alexander van Bellen to nominate the prime minister. He said yesterday that these appointments requires a certain level of trust in the people involved. Trust in particular with respect to the rule of law, separation of powers, human and minority rights, independent media, and EU membership. Before the elections, the president hinted that he has the option not to nominate Kickl, but also said that he could be open to another candidate from the FPÖ.

For the FPÖ and Kickl, the crucial question could thus turn into a choice between power and principle. If they insist on their Fortress Austria programme with its radical proposals and Kickl as next prime minister, they won’t get into government. If they open up to compromise, they may lose votes. Power comes with strings attached. The far-right is no exception to this rule.

Another way to look at the government options is to ask who will be in opposition. The FPÖ would be a formidable opposition force if they were left out. It would give them time to build on their successes, and nourish the narrative of a stolen victory, similar to what we see in France. The trend towards the far-right is also unlikely to ebb away as long there is geopolitical uncertainty, where people are more susceptible to promises of protectionism and nationalism. The far-right is thus there to stay, with or without the political firewall.